H E R T Z O G

B.C. Offshore Exploration A Guessing Game

Commentary, CBC Radio (national), February 4, 2002

On Canada's east and west coasts, oil and gas exploration has become a hot topic.

On the east coast, public hearings are bring held to decide whether to allow oil and gas exploration in the waters off Cape Breton.

While on the west coast, there are signs that the BC government is about to lift its 1982 moratorium on offshore oil and gas exploration.

In its first Throne Speech, the newly-elected BC government announced that it would explore the QUOTE enormous opportunities UNQUOTE of offshore oil and gas.

“ The BC government claims that there are huge pools of oil and gas worth billions of dollars off the north coast, and that modern technology will reduce the risks of exploration in this most earthquake-prone area in Canada.”

The government appointed a scientific panel to examine whether those resources could be extracted in a scientifically sound and environmentally responsible way.

The panel's report is now with cabinet, and the likelihood is that exploration off the north coast of BC will be given the green light.

The BC government claims that there are huge pools of oil and gas worth billions of dollars off the north coast, and that modern technology will reduce the risks of exploration in this most earthquake-prone area in Canada.

But there isn't much solid evidence of any commercially-significant oil or gas under the storm-tossed waters of the Hecate Strait.

Eighteen exploration wells drilled there between 1913 and 1969 all came up dry.

The huge potential touted by the boosters is based on an estimate that is speculative at best.

In 1995, the Geological Survey of Canada estimated that there may be 2.6 billion barrels of oil and 20 trillion feet of natural gas under the seas around Haida Gawaii.

Then as if by magic, the bubble of potential BC offshore oil and gas suddenly grew.

In 1998, the Geological Survey revised its figures upwards to 9.8 billion barrels of oil and 25.9 trillion cubic feet of gas - ten times the estimated reserves of Hibernia.

“ In 1995, the Geological Survey of Canada estimated that there may be 2.6 billion barrels of oil and 20 trillion feet of natural gas under the seas around Haida Gawaii. Then as if by magic, the bubble of potential BC offshore oil and gas suddenly grew.”

But according to a retired Geological Survey senior research scientist, there's only a ten to 20% probability that these resources actually exist.

Yet for almost four years now, a group of Prince Rupert businessmen has been trumpeting how lifting the moratorium would replace all the northern jobs lost in fishing and forestry.

They seem to have influential support.

Two years ago, the BC Chamber of Commerce came out in favour of lifting BC's offshore moratorium, claiming that the Northern Development Commissioner had found strong local support for offshore exploration.

But public hearings had revealed only support for a process to re-examine the current moratorium. That's a long way from enthusiastic commuity support.

A recent BC government task force of northern MLAs was astonished to encounter strong opposition from many north coast residents, including all coastal First Nations.

But with a government hungry for income, and an energy minister from the oil patch, don't hold your breath that the British Columbia's offshore moratorium is going to continue to protect our sensitive west coast marine environment.

When it comes to a tussle between money and the environment, guess which always wins.

In Victoria, I'm Stuart Hertzog